What does this week’s rate do to your payment?
Your answer comes first. Uses our 7.28% forecast and Freddie Mac’s 7.24% national average (Thu Oct 29). We don’t lock rates or quote loans.
Your numbers
Share this scenario (optional)
Slide the rate. Watch the payment.
Decision horizons & when to re-check▾
7.28% (7.13–7.43%). Final Monday, scored Thursday.
What would flip it: A 10-yr move of about 0.10 points during the Mon–Wed survey window.
Oil near $117 after the Hormuz attack, the Nov 3 midterms and the Nov 6 jobs report are the swing factors; the 10-yr just slipped back under 5%.
What would flip it: Up if strikes resume or oil keeps climbing; down if the 10-yr holds under ~4.9% through the next survey windows.
The Fed held Oct 28 and is talking about a hike, not a cut, before the Dec 8–9 FOMC. If you're flexible on timing, budget for the band below, not for a drop.
What would flip it: A soft-landing data run (cooler inflation, weaker jobs) would pull the band lower; an oil shock or a surprise December hike would push it higher.
With the Fed leaning toward a hike and the 10-yr near 5%, relief needs inflation to cool; buy when the payment works and treat a later drop as a refinance option.
External benchmarks: compare Fannie Mae ESR and MBA published outlooks. We don’t replace them; we translate to a move.
What would flip it: Relief if inflation and jobs cool and the Fed turns to cuts; higher-for-longer if energy keeps inflation sticky.
A year out, the range of outcomes is wider than any one-week move; plan a payment you can carry across the base band, and don't hold a purchase search for a forecast this far out.
External benchmarks: compare Fannie Mae ESR and MBA published outlooks. We don’t replace them; we translate to a move.
What would invalidate it: Invalidated by a recession (rates lower, faster), a new inflation shock or Fed hikes into 2027 (higher), or a big change to Fannie/Freddie pricing or status.
The weekly number is the one we grade. Near-term, ~90-day, 2–4 quarter and ~12-month views are rough reads, marked as such and never graded or sold as a lock. How horizons work
Buying or refinancing, check again after Thursday's grade (Nov 5): if the call moves off Prepare, re-run the wait check on your own loan. If it says keep your loan, that's the honest answer until the numbers change.
Estimates only. Not financial advice, not a rate quote, not an offer of credit, not a rate lock. Talk to a licensed loan officer about your situation.
Math: M = P × r(1+r)n / ((1+r)n − 1), r = annual rate / 12, n = months. Principal and interest only unless you add tax/insurance; excludes PMI, HOA and points. Benchmarks: Freddie Mac PMMS national averages; Fannie Mae and MBA publish their own forecasts. Your offered rate depends on credit, down payment, loan type and lender.