Methodology
How we build each weekly forecast, and how we hold ourselves accountable.
Model (v1, Treasury delta)
Forecast = last Freddie Mac PMMS rate + (latest 10-year Treasury close − average 10-year close during that PMMS survey window, Monday–Wednesday). Range is ±0.15 percentage points. Same rule for the 15-year.
Current inputs: PMMS 7.24% (2026-10-29); survey-window 10-yr average 5.013%; latest 10-yr 5.05% (2026-10-28); delta 0.037 pts. Sources: FRED MORTGAGE30US, MORTGAGE15US, DGS10. Fed policy, jobs and CPI are shown as context; they don’t enter v1 directly.
We don’t forecast the 5/1 ARM: Freddie Mac stopped publishing a 5/1 ARM average in November 2022, so there’s nothing to grade it against.
Publish checks (fail-closed): every PMMS date must be a Thursday, and inputs must come from the latest release. If a check fails, we don’t publish. If a grade is more than 6 hours late, the site shows a “Grade overdue” banner.
What every forecast includes
- Point estimate for 30-year and 15-year fixed
- Expected range (low to high)
- Direction (up, down, stable) and confidence (low until a track record exists)
- A plain-English narrative of the key drivers
How we grade ourselves
Within ±0.10% of the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average
Within ±0.20%
Beyond ±0.20%
We compare each forecast to the next Thursday Freddie Mac PMMS release (FRED MORTGAGE30US). HIT within ±0.10 percentage points, CLOSE within ±0.20, MISS beyond ±0.20.
Schedule
- Monday: weekly forecast published (this week’s was published Friday Oct 30 after a data correction)
- Thursday afternoon: scorecard updated after the noon ET PMMS release
What we don't do
- We do not provide personalized rate quotes or promise rate locks
- We do not use proprietary or member-gated data
- We do not run ads that look like rate tables
- We do not imply endorsement from any lender or government agency
Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees or offers of credit.
FAQ
Why compare to Freddie Mac PMMS? It is the most widely cited public weekly benchmark for U.S. 30-year mortgage rates.
Is the historical data real? Yes. Only live forecasts appear on the scorecard. Illustrative back-tests shown before Oct 30, 2026 used made-up actuals and were removed.
Can I use the data? Yes. CSV downloads and a JSON API are free with attribution. See About → API.