Where mortgage rates are heading this week
A transparent weekly forecast, plus a public scorecard that grades every call against the Freddie Mac PMMS weekly average.
What this means on a $400,000 loan
Principal & interest on a 30-year fixed at the forecast rate is about $2,507/mo (range $2,481–$2,541). Excludes taxes, insurance and PMI. Illustrative only; your rate depends on credit, down payment and lender.
Know where rates are heading before you lock.
- ✓ Monday forecast: 30-yr, 15-yr and 5/1 ARM
- ✓ Thursday scorecard vs. Freddie Mac PMMS
- ✓ Alerts when markets move sharply
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This week's outlook
Mortgage rates are expected to remain relatively stable this week. The 10-year Treasury yield has consolidated around 4.28%, reflecting market uncertainty ahead of the November Fed meeting. Current Fed funds futures suggest a 68% probability of rates holding steady, with a 32% chance of a 25bp cut. The September jobs report showed 142,000 new positions—softer than expected but not recessionary. CPI continues its gradual descent toward the Fed's 2% target. We expect the 30-year fixed to trade in a narrow range between 6.32% and 6.55%, with modest downside potential if economic data continues to soften.
Key rate drivers
Yields holding steady as markets digest mixed economic signals
Next meeting 2026-11-06: 68% hold / 32% cut (market odds)
Labor market cooling but resilient
Inflation trending toward Fed target
Forecast vs. the market
| Source | Date | Type | 30-yr fixed | 15-yr fixed | 5/1 ARM | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Mac PMMS | 2026-10-24 | actual | 6.54% | 5.71% | — | Weekly survey released every Thursday |
| Fannie Mae Q4 2026 | 2026-10-15 | forecast | 6.40% | — | — | Q4 2026 forecast from October ESR report |
| MBA Q4 2026 | 2026-10-18 | forecast | 6.35% | 5.65% | 5.90% | Q4 2026 forecast from October commentary |
| RateScore Forecast | 2026-10-26 | forecast | 6.42% | 5.68% | 5.95% | Week of 2026-W44 blended forecast |
Download: rates-table.csv. Third-party figures are cited from public releases; no affiliation or endorsement implied.
Our track record
Sample data: live tracking begins 2026-W44.
| Week | Forecast date | Forecast (30-yr) | Freddie Mac PMMS actual | Error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-W44 | 2026-10-26 | 6.42% | Pending Thursday | — | PENDING |
| 2026-W43 SAMPLE | 2026-10-19 | 6.58% | 6.54% (2026-10-24) | 4 bps | HIT |
| 2026-W42 SAMPLE | 2026-10-12 | 6.55% | 6.62% (2026-10-17) | 7 bps | HIT |
| 2026-W41 SAMPLE | 2026-10-05 | 6.52% | 6.58% (2026-10-10) | 6 bps | HIT |
| 2026-W40 SAMPLE | 2026-09-28 | 6.55% | 6.49% (2026-10-03) | 6 bps | HIT |
Rows marked SAMPLE are illustrative back-tests; live grading begins with week 2026-W44. Download: scorecard.csv.
This is a forecast for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do not make rate-lock decisions based on this forecast.