Mortgage rate forecast: Week of Nov 2, 2026
Published 2026-10-30. Target: Freddie Mac PMMS released Thu Nov 5, 2026.
Outlook
Freddie Mac's PMMS 30-year average fell to 7.24% on Oct 29, 2026, from 7.32% a week earlier and a 7.40% peak on Oct 8-15. The 15-year averaged 6.60%. Rates rose roughly 60 bps from early September as the 10-year Treasury climbed above 5% and the Fed raised its target to 3.75-4.00% in September (held Oct 28). With the 10-year at 5.05% (2026-10-28) versus 5.01% during the last survey window, our simple Treasury-delta model points to about 7.28% for the Nov 5 PMMS (range 7.13-7.43%). Confidence is low: this model is new and has one live grade, a MISS.
Drivers
10-yr Treasury closed at 5.05% on 2026-10-28, vs a 5.01% average during the Oct 26-28 PMMS survey window.
FRED DGS10Raised 25 bps Sep 17, 2026; held Oct 28. Next FOMC meeting Dec 8–9, 2026.
Federal Reserve calendar / FRED DFEDTARUNonfarm payrolls +29,000 in September 2026 (FRED PAYEMS, month-over-month).
FRED PAYEMS (BLS)CPI-U up 3.7% year over year in September 2026 (FRED CPIAUCSL, seasonally adjusted).
FRED CPIAUCSL (BLS)