The Fed held. The next move it's talking about is up

Edited by the RateScore desk (independent). The desk picks the drivers, writes the call, and owns the Thursday grade, including corrections. No lender reviews or pays for this copy. About the desk

tl;dr · Will the Fed's December hike talk raise mortgage rates?

Not this week. With no Fed meeting before Thursday's Nov 5 survey, we estimate close to 0 bps from this driver. It works as a ceiling on relief: the Fed held at 3.75–4.00% on Oct 28 and is talking about raising, not cutting, before the Dec 8–9 FOMC. Don't wait for a Fed cut. Our call: Prepare.

Calendar

Oct 28FOMC holds at 3.75–4.00%
Thu Nov 5PMMS release, then our public grade
Fri Nov 6October jobs report (expected; counts toward W46)
Dec 8–9Next FOMC

What happened

The FOMC held at 3.75–4.00% on Oct 28, after raising in September (Federal Reserve). Chair Kevin Warsh said energy prices had "moved higher again" and that the Fed's job is to keep that from spreading across the economy. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect a December hike.

How it reaches your mortgage rate

Hike expectations push up the 2-year first. They reach the 10-year, and your mortgage, through inflation expectations. A hike that's already priced in hurts less than a surprise.

What it means for this week's 7.28% call

No Fed meeting this week, so this driver mostly sets a ceiling on relief. The October jobs report (expected Fri Nov 6) lands after our Thursday grade, so that risk counts toward next week. RateScore estimate: close to 0 bps for this Thursday's survey with no meeting this week. It matters as a cap: don't build a plan on long yields falling because of the Fed.

What it means for your payment

Each 0.10 percentage point on a $400k, 30-year loan is about $27 a month in principal and interest (RateScore estimate). Because no Fed cut is on the calendar, waiting only pays off if long-term yields fall on their own, and the Fed is not promising that. Plan on today's numbers.

What to watch next

The October jobs report, expected Fri Nov 6, lands after this week's grade, so its effect counts toward the following week. Between now and the Dec 8–9 meeting, watch Fed speakers and inflation data for whether a December hike becomes the expectation or a surprise. An expected hike is mostly priced into the 10-year already; a surprise is what would move mortgage rates.

Your move

Prepare, and don't wait for a Fed cut. None is in sight. Waiting only pays off if long yields fall, and the Fed isn't promising that. On $400k, each 0.10 point is about $27/mo (RateScore estimate).

This week in context

This week’s RateScore: 7.28% for Thursday’s Freddie Mac survey (Nov 5), range 7.13–7.43%, confidence low. Last week’s call missed against 7.24%, and that miss stays on the scorecard. This week grades Thursday. Monday Nov 2 confirms; we don’t silently change a graded number. Read the full weekly brief · Run the wait check

Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statement, Oct 28, 2026; Reuters, Oct 29. bps and dollar figures are RateScore estimates. RateScore is independent and isn’t affiliated with Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, FHFA or any lender.

Estimates only. Not financial advice, not a rate quote, not an offer of credit, not a rate lock. Talk to a licensed loan officer about your situation.