{
  "meta": {
    "generated": "2026-10-30T14:00:00Z",
    "description": "Public scorecard of RateScore forecasts vs actual Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year rates",
    "methodology": "We compare each forecast to the next Thursday Freddie Mac PMMS release (FRED MORTGAGE30US). HIT within ±0.10 percentage points, CLOSE within ±0.20, MISS beyond ±0.20.",
    "disclaimer": "Live grades only. Earlier illustrative SAMPLE back-tests were removed on 2026-10-30 because they used made-up actuals. Accuracy statistics are published only after 4 live grades."
  },
  "summary": {
    "live_graded": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "close": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "stats_published": false,
    "note": "Hit-rate and average error are withheld until 4 live grades exist."
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "week": "2026-W45",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-30",
      "product": "30yr_fixed",
      "forecast_rate": 7.28,
      "actual_rate": null,
      "actual_date": null,
      "error_bps": null,
      "result": "PENDING",
      "sample": false,
      "note": "Target: Freddie Mac PMMS released Thu Nov 5, 2026."
    },
    {
      "week": "2026-W44",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-26",
      "product": "30yr_fixed",
      "forecast_rate": 6.42,
      "actual_rate": 7.24,
      "actual_date": "2026-10-29",
      "error_bps": 82,
      "result": "MISS",
      "sample": false,
      "note": "Live grade. The Oct 26 forecast was built on an incorrect, stale baseline (it used 6.54% instead of the real 7.32% PMMS). We are keeping the miss on the record."
    }
  ]
}