{
  "generated": "2026-10-30",
  "note": "Weekly number is graded. Near-term and ~90-day views are desk scenarios, not graded, not advice, a quote or a lock.",
  "horizons": [
    {
      "horizon": "This week",
      "window": "Graded · Nov 5 PMMS",
      "move": "Prepare",
      "direction": "Sideways (call 7.28%, inputs lean ~7.21%)",
      "confidence": "low",
      "why": "Friday outlook 7.28% (range 7.13–7.43%). Monday Nov 2 confirms or revises; Thursday Nov 5 grades it in public.",
      "what_would_flip_it": "A 10-yr move of ~10 bps during the Mon–Wed survey window.",
      "graded": true,
      "label": "Graded weekly forecast"
    },
    {
      "horizon": "Near-term",
      "window": "Next 2–4 weeks · next 1–2 PMMS",
      "move": "Be ready to write",
      "direction": "Sideways, upside risk",
      "confidence": "low",
      "why": "Oil near $117 after the Hormuz attack, the Nov 3 midterms and the Nov 6 jobs report are the swing factors; the 10-yr just slipped back under 5%.",
      "what_would_flip_it": "Up if strikes resume or oil keeps climbing; down if the 10-yr holds under ~4.9% through the next survey windows.",
      "graded": false,
      "label": "Desk scenario, not graded"
    },
    {
      "horizon": "Next ~90 days",
      "window": "Through ~January 2027 · scenarios",
      "move": "Don't wait for a Fed cut",
      "direction": "Scenario band, no point forecast",
      "confidence": "low",
      "why": "The Fed held Oct 28 and is talking about a hike, not a cut, before the Dec 8–9 FOMC. If you're flexible on timing, budget for the band below, not for a drop.",
      "what_would_flip_it": "A soft-landing data run (cooler inflation, weaker jobs) would pull the band lower; an oil shock or a surprise December hike would push it higher.",
      "graded": false,
      "label": "Desk scenario, not graded",
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "name": "Soft landing",
          "rate_30yr_low": 6.8,
          "rate_30yr_high": 7.1,
          "pi_400k_low": 2608,
          "pi_400k_high": 2688
        },
        {
          "name": "Base",
          "rate_30yr_low": 7,
          "rate_30yr_high": 7.5,
          "pi_400k_low": 2661,
          "pi_400k_high": 2797
        },
        {
          "name": "Oil scare / Dec hike surprise",
          "rate_30yr_low": 7.5,
          "rate_30yr_high": 7.8,
          "pi_400k_low": 2797,
          "pi_400k_high": 2879
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "horizon": "Next ~2–4 quarters",
      "window": "Through ~mid/late 2027 · scenarios",
      "move": "Buy on payment, not on a rate bet",
      "direction": "Scenario bands, no point forecast",
      "confidence": "low",
      "why": "With the Fed leaning toward a hike and the 10-yr near 5%, relief needs inflation to cool; buy when the payment works and treat a later drop as a refinance option.",
      "what_would_flip_it": "Relief if inflation and jobs cool and the Fed turns to cuts; higher-for-longer if energy keeps inflation sticky.",
      "graded": false,
      "label": "Desk scenario, not graded",
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "name": "Relief",
          "rate_30yr_low": 6.5,
          "rate_30yr_high": 7,
          "pi_400k_low": 2528,
          "pi_400k_high": 2661
        },
        {
          "name": "Base",
          "rate_30yr_low": 6.9,
          "rate_30yr_high": 7.5,
          "pi_400k_low": 2634,
          "pi_400k_high": 2797
        },
        {
          "name": "Higher for longer",
          "rate_30yr_low": 7.4,
          "rate_30yr_high": 8,
          "pi_400k_low": 2770,
          "pi_400k_high": 2935
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "horizon": "~12 months",
      "window": "Through ~Oct 2027 · scenarios",
      "move": "Keep loan / move when ready",
      "direction": "Wide scenario bands",
      "confidence": "low",
      "why": "A year out, the range of outcomes is wider than any one-week move; plan a payment you can carry across the base band, and don't hold a purchase search for a forecast this far out.",
      "what_would_flip_it": "Invalidated by a recession (rates lower, faster), a new inflation shock or Fed hikes into 2027 (higher), or a big change to Fannie/Freddie pricing or status.",
      "graded": false,
      "label": "Desk scenario, not graded",
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "name": "Relief",
          "rate_30yr_low": 6.2,
          "rate_30yr_high": 6.8,
          "pi_400k_low": 2450,
          "pi_400k_high": 2608
        },
        {
          "name": "Base",
          "rate_30yr_low": 6.7,
          "rate_30yr_high": 7.4,
          "pi_400k_low": 2581,
          "pi_400k_high": 2770
        },
        {
          "name": "Higher for longer",
          "rate_30yr_low": 7.3,
          "rate_30yr_high": 8,
          "pi_400k_low": 2742,
          "pi_400k_high": 2935
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}