{ "schema": "ratescore.aeo-call/v1", "schema_note": "Read-only machine feed for agents and answer engines. call_of_record = graded weekly number (national average forecast of the Thursday Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year rate), lean = latest inputs (not the graded number), grades = live scorecard, drivers = this week's cited drivers. No signup, lead form or start link.", "what_this_is": "Forecast of the Freddie Mac PMMS-style national average (survey rate a typical borrower faces), not an advertised as-low-as lender rate with points, and not a quote, offer or lock.", "week": "2026-W45", "week_label": "Week of Nov 2, 2026", "target_pmms_date": "2026-11-05", "confirm_date": "2026-11-02", "publish_state": { "state": "friday_preview_ungraded", "graded": false, "graded_call_day": "2026-11-02", "grade_against": "Freddie Mac PMMS 2026-11-05", "note": "Confirms Monday, Nov 2." }, "inputs_at_publish": { "status": "pending_monday_publish", "frozen": false, "will_freeze_on": "2026-11-02", "friday_preview_inputs": { "rate_30yr": 7.28, "published": "2026-10-30", "basis_10yr": 5.05, "basis_10yr_date": "2026-10-28", "survey_window_10yr_avg": 5.013, "delta_pct_pts": 0.037, "formula_check": "7.24 + (5.05 - 5.013) = 7.277 -> 7.28" } }, "inputs_latest": { "updated": "2026-10-29", "may_change_midweek": true, "purpose": "desk notes only; never regrades the call", "lean": { "rate_30yr": 7.21, "basis_10yr": 4.98, "basis_10yr_date": "2026-10-29", "delta_pct_pts": -0.033, "formula_check": "7.24 + (4.98 - 5.013) = 7.207 -> 7.21" } }, "publish_gate": { "ok": true, "check": "LF.model.last_pmms_30yr/date == FRED MORTGAGE30US row (historical_pmms[0]) == rates-table Freddie Mac PMMS actual" }, "call_of_record": { "rate_30yr": 7.28, "range_low": 7.13, "range_high": 7.43, "net_call": "Prepare", "status": "Friday early outlook; stays the call of record until the Monday confirm", "note": "Monday confirms; we don't silently change a graded number." }, "lean": { "rate_30yr": 7.21, "basis_10yr": 4.98, "basis_10yr_date": "2026-10-29", "delta_pct_pts": -0.033, "formula_check": "7.24 + (4.98 - 5.013) = 7.207 -> 7.21" }, "last_pmms": { "rate_30yr": 7.24, "date": "2026-10-29" }, "grades": { "summary": { "live_graded": 1, "hits": 0, "close": 0, "misses": 1, "stats_published": false, "note": "Hit-rate and average error are withheld until 4 live grades exist." }, "method": "We compare each forecast to the next Thursday Freddie Mac PMMS release (FRED MORTGAGE30US). HIT within ±0.10 percentage points, CLOSE within ±0.20, MISS beyond ±0.20.", "records": [ { "week": "2026-W45", "forecast_date": "2026-10-30", "product": "30yr_fixed", "forecast_rate": 7.28, "actual_rate": null, "actual_date": null, "error_bps": null, "result": "PENDING", "sample": false, "note": "Target: Freddie Mac PMMS released Thu Nov 5, 2026.", "friday_outlook": 7.28, "monday_call": null, "monday_call_note": "Pending Monday Nov 2 confirm; 7.28% is call of record until then", "grade_state": "friday_preview_ungraded", "graded": false }, { "week": "2026-W44", "forecast_date": "2026-10-26", "product": "30yr_fixed", "forecast_rate": 6.42, "actual_rate": 7.24, "actual_date": "2026-10-29", "error_bps": 82, "result": "MISS", "sample": false, "note": "Live grade. The Oct 26 forecast was built on an incorrect, stale baseline (it used 6.54% instead of the real 7.32% PMMS). We are keeping the miss on the record.", "friday_outlook": null, "monday_call": 6.42 } ] }, "drivers": { "net_call": { "label": "Prepare", "line": "Get ready, don't bet on the week. We posted 7.28% (range 7.13–7.43%, low confidence). Thursday's close pulled the 10-year back under 5%, so it could dip a bit, near 7.21%. Election Tuesday and oil headlines can still move it either way. Get documents and lock options lined up now so you can act on a good day." }, "weekly": [ { "id": "oil-hormuz-oct30", "title": "Brent hit $117 on a tanker bombing. Your rate hasn't caught up yet", "move": "prepare", "rate_estimate": "RateScore estimate: a renewed-strikes scare worth roughly 10 bps on the 10-year puts Thursday's survey near the top of 7.13–7.43%. Progress in the Qatar talks points to the bottom. Built on the model's 1:1 Treasury pass-through, which has one graded week behind it.", "source_name": "Reuters via Euronext, Oct 30, 2026; WSJ via Anadolu, Oct 30, 2026", "source_url": "https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/oil-set-fourth-monthly-gain-hormuz-tanker-attack-highlights-supply-risks" }, { "id": "pce-hot-yields-fall", "title": "Inflation ran hot. Bonds rallied anyway. Don't count on that twice", "move": "prepare", "rate_estimate": "RateScore estimate: refreshed inputs point to roughly 7.16–7.21%, below the posted 7.28% and still inside 7.13–7.43%. A December-hike scare could erase that fast.", "source_name": "BEA, Oct 29, 2026; U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve, Oct 29; CNBC, Oct 30", "source_url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026" }, { "id": "dec-hike-odds", "title": "The Fed held. The next move it's talking about is up", "move": "prepare", "rate_estimate": "RateScore estimate: close to 0 bps for this Thursday's survey with no meeting this week. It matters as a cap: don't build a plan on long yields falling because of the Fed.", "source_name": "Federal Reserve FOMC statement, Oct 28, 2026; Reuters, Oct 29", "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm" } ] }, "links": { "forecast": "https://getratescore.com/forecasts/2026-W45", "scorecard": "https://getratescore.com/archive", "drivers_json": "https://getratescore.com/data/drivers.json", "scorecard_json": "https://getratescore.com/data/scorecard.json" }, "source": "RateScore", "disclaimer": "Informational only; not advice, a quote or a lock." }